Photo: Tesla
During the Q4 2023 earnings call, Tesla claimed that the Cybertruck production will be soon sold out for 2024. This prediction is at odds with current delivery estimates and the installed production capacity. Whatever might have caused this, Tesla denies it has to do with the 4680 cell production issues.
Although the Cybertruck was not the focus of the Q4 2023 earnings call, the topic is still popular. People are eager to find out more about the production ramp and when reservation holders will finally get to convert their reservations into orders. So far, the Cybertruck is still offered as a Foundation Series to selected customers, while people who placed a reservation in the first days after the 2019 unveiling are still waiting for their turn.
Nobody expected the production of the electric truck to ramp up quickly. Still, Tesla is doing a lousy job of clearing the misunderstandings. Based on the production capacity Tesla published in the Q4 2023 shareholder deck, Tesla could theoretically build 125,000 Cybertrucks per year. While this is not enough to satisfy the number of reservations the Cybertruck has accumulated since its unveiling, it could be a reasonable production run if true.
However, Tesla is obviously not producing that many electric pickups at Giga Texas. Although Cybertrucks are spotted every day in the outbound lot, their numbers point to less than 500 units produced per month. Many thought this low production pace was caused mainly by the low production yields for the 4680 battery cells. Tesla recently started importing cathode coils from China to speed up production, a move that battery experts criticized.
Tesla wants to paint a different picture, though. During the earnings call conference, Tesla denied that 4680 cells limit the Cybertruck ramp. Karn Budhiraj, Tesla's VP of Supply Chain, said that 4680 production is "ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory." I have a hard time believing this, considering that Tesla intends to operate eight battery lines by the end of 2024 instead of just one currently.
Tesla is still in the early stages of 4680-cell production, with 2024 touted as "the big year for ramping 4680." Currently, it operates one battery line at Giga Texas, with two other lines used "for yield and rate improvement trials." Tesla has a fourth line in commissioning, and four more will be installed starting in the second half of the year. Tesla also expects its suppliers to ramp up orders toward the end of 2024. If Tesla has enough 4680 cells in inventory to fill weeks of production, why all these efforts?
Karn further said that the Cybertruck's reservation-to-order conversion rates exceed expectations. If the trend continues, Tesla will soon sell out all the builds in 2024. Elon Musk confirmed that the Cybertruck is production-constrained, with demand "off the hook." Neither Tesla executive explained how many 2024 deliveries will be Foundation Series or when the regular variants will start deliveries.
Nobody expected the production of the electric truck to ramp up quickly. Still, Tesla is doing a lousy job of clearing the misunderstandings. Based on the production capacity Tesla published in the Q4 2023 shareholder deck, Tesla could theoretically build 125,000 Cybertrucks per year. While this is not enough to satisfy the number of reservations the Cybertruck has accumulated since its unveiling, it could be a reasonable production run if true.
However, Tesla is obviously not producing that many electric pickups at Giga Texas. Although Cybertrucks are spotted every day in the outbound lot, their numbers point to less than 500 units produced per month. Many thought this low production pace was caused mainly by the low production yields for the 4680 battery cells. Tesla recently started importing cathode coils from China to speed up production, a move that battery experts criticized.
Tesla wants to paint a different picture, though. During the earnings call conference, Tesla denied that 4680 cells limit the Cybertruck ramp. Karn Budhiraj, Tesla's VP of Supply Chain, said that 4680 production is "ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory." I have a hard time believing this, considering that Tesla intends to operate eight battery lines by the end of 2024 instead of just one currently.
Tesla is still in the early stages of 4680-cell production, with 2024 touted as "the big year for ramping 4680." Currently, it operates one battery line at Giga Texas, with two other lines used "for yield and rate improvement trials." Tesla has a fourth line in commissioning, and four more will be installed starting in the second half of the year. Tesla also expects its suppliers to ramp up orders toward the end of 2024. If Tesla has enough 4680 cells in inventory to fill weeks of production, why all these efforts?
Karn further said that the Cybertruck's reservation-to-order conversion rates exceed expectations. If the trend continues, Tesla will soon sell out all the builds in 2024. Elon Musk confirmed that the Cybertruck is production-constrained, with demand "off the hook." Neither Tesla executive explained how many 2024 deliveries will be Foundation Series or when the regular variants will start deliveries.
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