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Tesla Q3 2023 Production and Delivery Numbers Are Below Expectations Despite Warnings

Tesla Q3 2023 results 6 photos
Photo: Tesla
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Tesla released the production and delivery numbers for Q3 2023, and, as expected, they are lower than in the second quarter. The EV maker produced 430K and delivered 435K cars between July and September, both numbers below analyst estimates.
During the second quarter earnings call, Tesla warned that its main factories in Fremont, Austin, and Shanghai would undergo upgrades that would likely impact production. The information was offered as Tesla just announced a record second quarter with 480K EVs produced and 466K delivered. Nobody knew at the time how much impact overhauling the factories would have on Tesla production.

Wall Street analysts remained largely optimistic, with a majority of them expecting a minor impact on sales and deliveries. The analysts' consensus estimated that about 455K Teslas would still be delivered in the quarter. They took into account the production hit caused by the Model 3 Highland switchover at Giga Shanghai and the downtime for factory upgrades at Fremont and Giga Texas. Still, the numbers shared by Tesla fall well below these expectations, causing frustration among investors.

Tesla produced a total of 430,488 cars, most of them (416,800) being Model 3 and Model X. It also delivered 435,059 (419,074 Model 3 and Model Y). With these numbers, Tesla delivered 1,324,074 cars in the first nine months of 2023, which is still more than in the entire 2022, when it totaled 1,313,851 vehicles. The seemingly disappointing numbers caused the stock to tank in pre-market trading. It later caught up some steam and was less than 2% down at the time of writing.

Disappointing as they are, the numbers reveal another interesting information. For the first time this year, Tesla delivered more cars than it produced. This is likely because the production pauses allowed Tesla to shave inventory. Aggressive price cuts for inventory vehicles also contributed to this result. Tesla still produced almost 27,000 more cars than it delivered in the first three quarters. This makes people wonder how Tesla would manage to increase deliveries in the last quarter of the year.

Despite these lower-than-expected figures, Tesla is confident it's still on track to meet the 2023 volume target of around 1.8 million vehicles. That would mean Tesla expects to deliver 480K vehicles in the fourth quarter, which would be a new quarterly record. The recently launched Model 3 Highland will likely be a massive contributor to this result. The upgraded Model Y line at Giga Texas should also add to the numbers. The Cybertruck deliveries in the quarter will likely be too small to influence the results.

As always, Tesla withholds the juicy details until the Q3 2023 earnings call, scheduled after market close on October 18. Investors will have the chance to submit their questions regarding the company's financials and outlook in advance. Tesla management will answer these questions (and others from the public) during a live webcast starting at 5:30 PM ET.
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About the author: Cristian Agatie
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After his childhood dream of becoming a "tractor operator" didn't pan out, Cristian turned to journalism, first in print and later moving to online media. His top interests are electric vehicles and new energy solutions.
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