Photo: Tesla
In January, Tesla dismissed claims that the limited 4680 cell output might be holding back Cybertruck production. Three months later, it revealed that it builds roughly 1,000 trucks per week, which seems like a respectable figure considering the early production stage. However, DMV data show that Tesla production has basically been flat since March, while quality issues have become more widespread.
Last year, Elon Musk warned that ramping up Cybertruck production would be challenging, considering the many new technologies Tesla used in its first pickup truck. The stainless steel body panels are difficult to cut and shape, which is why Tesla couldn't hem the edges. The body panels are nowhere near being the Cybertruck's most technologically advanced parts, though. The steer-by-wire system, 48-volt electrical system, Etherloop, and others are unique to the Cybertruck. The 4680 cells are also in limited supply, potentially causing production delays.
However, during the Q4 2023 earnings call, Tesla dismissed the claims that the 4680 cell production was a bottleneck for the Cybertruck. Karn Budhiraj, Tesla's VP of Supply Chain, said that 4680 production was "ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory." Indeed, Tesla announced that it built its 50 millionth 4680 battery cell at Giga Texas on June 6. This is enough to produce over 22,000 Cybertrucks, which Tesla clearly hasn't yet.
During the first quarter earnings call, Tesla revealed that it reached an output level of 1,000 Cybertrucks per week in April. This was an impressive achievement, considering that it happened less than five months after the start of production. It made people confident that Tesla would ramp up Cybertruck production much faster than anticipated, making it cost-efficient.
However, new data extracted from DMV databases show a more nuanced situation. Based on the VINs allocated for the Cybertrucks rolling off the production line at Giga Texas, the production hasn't increased as people expected. The graphic shows a straight line, meaning the production rate has remained flat since March. It's unclear why the Cybertruck production is not ramping up as expected, but the consequences are predictable.
First, production costs remain high, making it unlikely that Tesla will make money on the Cybertruck soon. The electric pickup remains a halo car, but it will weigh heavily on the company's balance sheet. Tesla reported disappointing Q1 2024 financial data, and it's likely to continue to burn money in the foreseeable future unless the Cybertruck becomes profitable. Remember that Tesla has other money-hungry projects ongoing, the most expensive being the new data center at Giga Texas to train FSD neural networks.
The second important consequence is that people hoping to buy a more affordable Cybertruck soon can forget about it. Tesla started deliveries of the Cybertruck at much higher prices than announced in 2019. However, not even those prices were enough to cover costs, which is why Tesla invented the Foundation Series badge to milk another $20,000. The Foundation Series markup doesn't look like it will go away soon, at least not as long as Tesla could find people willing to pay it.
Recently, a new batch of Cybertruck reservation holders got invitations to configure their Cybertruck. What's striking this time is that people who reserved the truck in September 2020 were invited, and many said they would wait for the Foundation Series to end. This means that Tesla might soon run out of deep-pocketed customers willing to pay $20,000 more for a Foundation Series Cybertruck. When this happens, things will get really interesting, as Tesla will be forced to lower prices whether the Cybertruck becomes profitable or not.
However, during the Q4 2023 earnings call, Tesla dismissed the claims that the 4680 cell production was a bottleneck for the Cybertruck. Karn Budhiraj, Tesla's VP of Supply Chain, said that 4680 production was "ahead of the ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory." Indeed, Tesla announced that it built its 50 millionth 4680 battery cell at Giga Texas on June 6. This is enough to produce over 22,000 Cybertrucks, which Tesla clearly hasn't yet.
During the first quarter earnings call, Tesla revealed that it reached an output level of 1,000 Cybertrucks per week in April. This was an impressive achievement, considering that it happened less than five months after the start of production. It made people confident that Tesla would ramp up Cybertruck production much faster than anticipated, making it cost-efficient.
However, new data extracted from DMV databases show a more nuanced situation. Based on the VINs allocated for the Cybertrucks rolling off the production line at Giga Texas, the production hasn't increased as people expected. The graphic shows a straight line, meaning the production rate has remained flat since March. It's unclear why the Cybertruck production is not ramping up as expected, but the consequences are predictable.
First, production costs remain high, making it unlikely that Tesla will make money on the Cybertruck soon. The electric pickup remains a halo car, but it will weigh heavily on the company's balance sheet. Tesla reported disappointing Q1 2024 financial data, and it's likely to continue to burn money in the foreseeable future unless the Cybertruck becomes profitable. Remember that Tesla has other money-hungry projects ongoing, the most expensive being the new data center at Giga Texas to train FSD neural networks.
The second important consequence is that people hoping to buy a more affordable Cybertruck soon can forget about it. Tesla started deliveries of the Cybertruck at much higher prices than announced in 2019. However, not even those prices were enough to cover costs, which is why Tesla invented the Foundation Series badge to milk another $20,000. The Foundation Series markup doesn't look like it will go away soon, at least not as long as Tesla could find people willing to pay it.
Recently, a new batch of Cybertruck reservation holders got invitations to configure their Cybertruck. What's striking this time is that people who reserved the truck in September 2020 were invited, and many said they would wait for the Foundation Series to end. This means that Tesla might soon run out of deep-pocketed customers willing to pay $20,000 more for a Foundation Series Cybertruck. When this happens, things will get really interesting, as Tesla will be forced to lower prices whether the Cybertruck becomes profitable or not.
I have new DMV VIN data (Vehicle Identification Numbers) up to June 3rd. I use this data to calculate Tesla's production. The accuracy of this method is 98.8%. The data includes all Tesla models produced in the US.
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 5, 2024
For example, this chart shows Cybertruck production. The… pic.twitter.com/tOW1UU0Ixl
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